Duan Qingfeng, Chen Hong, Liu Dongxia, Yan Xuxian, Zhang Hongbing
[Purposes/Significance]The key and difficult point during the period when identifying emergent characteristics of topic in discipline is to disclose growing trend in potentially.[Method/Process]The topic's growth was investigated from two aspects of hotness and influence,and the extent to which topics grow up was estimated by using machine-learning algorithm as predicting model.Based on this,emerging topics were classified into different sub-categories.Firstly,hotness index that combines bibliometric indicator and altmetric indicator was designed,and then a prediction model that use LSTM to predict the extent to which hotness index increase was established.Secondly,another prediction model that has three-layer neural network and can predict newly occurred link in future between two topics based on the similarity index from weighted link prediction was proposed.Based on those,PageRank algorithm was used to estimate influence of a topic embedded in the network we had predicted.Finally,a comprehensive method was offered to discern different types of emergent topic.The method constructed a two-dimensional recognition space,using the growth indicators including hotness and influence,to conduct clustering analysis on topics.[Result/Conclusion]The paper conducted an empirical study with the samples from the discipline of information science,which successfully confirmed the effectiveness of our proposed method.Results illustrated that those index for growth prediction are sensitive enough to emergency.